Labor Day: A Celebration of American Achievement

Workers marched from Fifth Avenue to Union Square in New York City in the first Labor Day parade in 1882

If all the cars in the United States were placed end to end, it would probably be Labor Day Weekend.

     ~Doug Larson, columnist

Americans flock to the lake or beach, attend picnics and parades or just enjoy a day off work every year on the first Monday of September. The celebration of Labor Day turns 130 years old in 2012, having originated in 1882.

History isn’t totally clear on the origins of Labor Day. The two prevailing theories are that it was either started by a machinist in New York, Matthew Maguire, while he was serving as secretary of the Central Labor Union, or our celebration of the holiday was imported from our neighbor to the North after labor leader Peter J. McGuire of the American Federation of Labor brought the idea back from Toronto.

What isn’t in dispute is that the first Labor Day parade was in September 1882 in New York City, and in 1894 President Grover Cleveland declared the first Monday in September as National Labor Day.

Yes, the American economy is in tough shape as we celebrate the achievement of American workers this Labor Day. Americans need a combination of hard work and austerity to weather our current economic situation, a New American Ethic, as I called it in a previous column.

However, according to the CIA’s World Factbook, the U.S. is still the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world. Not that they’re biased or anything.

Either way, that’s something to celebrate.

Excelling in our current economy may be no picnic, but we can recognize the value of hard work and the entrepreneurial capitalistic enterprise that built this country in the first place by celebrating with one.

What will you be doing this Labor Day?

What the Boogeyman and the Economy Have in Common

Our economy has had its ups and downs in recent months and years. The experts say that we can’t technically have a double-dip recession because of the time that has passed since the official end of the first recession, but in my opinion, we’re not going to enter a double-dip recession because we never got out of the first one.

Definitions are important and valid, but at the end of the day the economy is an idea, and a recession is one shade of our attitude towards this idea, not simply a result of unemployment, debt, an unbalanced budget, and impotent spending.

What’s In Our Heads

If the economy is an idea, then we must believe in the idea for it to be and work. That is not to say that the idea, in this case the economy, does not exist without our belief in it, but that our belief in and about it colors the way the economy affects us and causes us to behave. Just consider the erraticism of the stock market recently and why I contended it’s behaving this way (click here).

For instance, when people believe that the economy is good, they are more inclined to spend. Why not? many figure. Things are looking up; the job market and salaries are rising; others around me are spending; deals are good.

However, when we’re told that we’re in a recession, that unemployment is at record highs, that the stock market is all over the place, that this or that company is not even giving cost-of-living wage increases, we’re inclined to use the phrase “tighten our belts” more often, spend less on credit cards, hedge our bets at work by doing more for the same pay, and generally become more fiscally conservative with our personal budgets.

All of this is fine and natural, but it’s important to remember the power the economy has as an idea on a very personal level. After all, plenty of people don’t have jobs in good economies, too, and opt to spend less for various reasons and feel like things aren’t great from a monetary perspective. When the economy is bad, though, this is just happening to more individuals, and on the aggregate level the perception becomes greater that the economy is bad.

A Booga Booga Booga

Consider the Boogeyman.

Kids are afraid of the Boogeyman not because they’ve seen him and he’s affected their lives in a physical fashion. He doesn’t really come out of their closets or from underneath their beds when parents leave the room. He’s terrifying as an idea because the environment is scary – e.g. it’s dark, noises sound stranger at night, parents aren’t around to protect kids, etc. – and because kids can’t even imagine all of the terrible things he will do to them if he finds them. Thus, kids cry and get upset and run to mommy and daddy. They are reacting to an idea that affects them because they believe that it has power.

In order for the idea of the Boogeyman to work, kids must have faith in it, and the same goes for our economy. In order for it to work, we must have faith in it.

When we allow the aggregate noise of those disappointed with the economy to make us all afraid of its power and badness, we all take the actions and attitude that further cripple the economy. It’s a spiral. We lose faith in the economy’s power to be strong and do right by us, and that’s part of what the economy is: our reaction to it. It has power as an idea.

Stand Up to the Idea

We are in a recession, but for most of us, it’s the idea of the economy rather than a lost job or failed business that keeps us in this recession mindset. Rather than dread the recession and lose faith in the economy, I contend that we need to change our attitude towards it. We need to prize austerity and appreciate the positive effects this environment can have on our fiscal responsibility and understanding of the things we do have.

Consider the Boogeyman again. It is the kid who braves the night alone instead of crying to his parents, believing that the Boogeyman is always on the brink of getting him, who gets more courageous every night, increasingly able to withstand the fears of lurking dread. Let’s stop whining about the horrors of this economy and getting wrapped up in the definitions of a recession.

Now it’s about how we react to this recession that matters.

How have you been reacting – both mentally and practically – to our economic climate?

Has Emotion Joined the Greece Conspiracy

Did you read my last post on the emotional fluctuations of the stock market as a result of the financial crisis surrounding Greece? Well, the fickle and emotionally volatile market has struck again.

On Thursday morning EST, the Greek Prime Minister announced that he was shelving his controversial referendum plan. Surely his initial inclination to conduct this referendum was to make sure that the people understood – and supported the fact – that their hands would be tied by the rest of Europe if they agreed to accept the plan that had been proposed. My hunch is that the rest of Europe slapped Greece around behind the scenes a bit, and Greece backed down, realizing that the only way to save itself – and potentially the rest of Europe if it went down the toilet – was to accept the plan.

That said, the American market loved that the referendum was off and the plan was on. Once again, faith was renewed in economic recovery. Hooray.

Up and down and up and down. Multiple fluctuations between 1 and 2% day after day and week after week, all because of an emotional reaction to a situation materializing in Greece. 

Market fluctuations are normal, but can’t they reflect the actual state of the economy and business? Must they be tied to the whimsical reactions of our emotions towards the ideas of Greece’s situation? Do you hear the vagueness in that last sentence? That’s because it represents the tenuous connection between our stock market and Greece’s referendum.

Once again, I reiterate: you can’t be as smart as the last person you talked to. It’s not healthy. It’s not safe. 

Take some balancing medication.

Do not allow your plans and your feelings and your actions to oscillate dangerously every time you hear something new. Learn to process information collectively and act on its aggregate.

Our reactions to the situation in Greece and Europe are a roller coaster – and not the fun kind. They’re the kind you get on after too much funnel cake and Coke and that are a little too rickety. Have the emotional maturity to know when not to get on that roller coaster. Watch your friends and strangers get on. Keep your cool and and make wise decisions when faced with crisis all around you.

How Greece and the Stock Market are Conspiring Against You

If you’re a news person or you follow finance then you’re no doubt already aware of the situation in Greece. That country is a mess. It’s debt is astronomical; it has no capacity to repay; the political situation is volatile at best; there are mass protests, and nobody has any idea what to do. That’s my definition of a mess.

Let’s Help or Face the Mess Ourselves

In order to prevent some kind of catastrophic ruin that affects the governments and finances of the rest of Europe – after all, Greece is on the Euro and its economy is intimately tied to the rest of the continent – European leaders have been working on some kind of deal to manage Greece’s debt (a large part of which they’ll just dismiss or fund) and get its economy back on track.

And Greece isn’t the only European country riding this roller coaster. It’s just got it the worst right now and is in the lime light. Spain, Italy and others are also going through quite a bad spot.

With the state of the world’s economic intimacy, we’re all affected by the situations around the world. Hardly a country is free from the ripple effects dealt by other members of our global union. But what’s fascinated me recently is the degree to which that intimacy is more emotional than logical.

Up and Down and Up and Down

As I’ve watched the stock market plummet and rebound over the past month, I’ve seen that movement tied disturbingly to our reactions to Greece’s economic situation.

When news came that Greece was tanking and talks were stalled, the market dropped. Last week, as news landed that Europe had reached an agreement on how to bail Greece out, the market rallied 340 points. Yesterday, the market closed down nearly 300 points. Here’s how CNN explained it:

“New fears about the fate of the European rescue plan reverberated through stock markets in the United States and around the world Tuesday. Following European markets, U.S. stocks ended sharply lower across the board. Bank stocks were hit especially hard. The bad news was propelled by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s surprise announcement that he would put his country’s participation in last week’s European debt plan to a voter referendum.”

Now, I understand that the stock market is not merely a bunch of mercurial people making decisions but an enormous number of trades made on the backs of incredibly complicated financial equations and algorithms, but when it swings so violently back and forth at news about Greece, I can’t help but think that things are getting a little ridiculous. And this is just news, mind you. Nothing is actually happening in any of these instances. A deal was reached but no money moved. A referendum was proposed but no vote actually taken. These may as well be rumors for the bearings they should have!

Don’t Be As Smart As the Last Person You Talked To

This reminds me of the business leaders I’ve dealt with who change their entire course of action every time they talk to someone. As I pointed out in my 5 Foolish Faux Pas of CEOs in Crisis, some CEOs are only as smart as the last person they spoke to. That’s what our economy feels like: as though it’s only as strong or relevant as the last thing it heard.

And I don’t want you to be this way!

Making plans and sticking to them is an important part of being a good leader and developing and growing a sustainable business. It’s especially important when you’re in a crisis. You can’t be flopping all over the place in rough times. Of course you change course when things are going wrong and you actually take the time to evaluate the situation, but if you’re changing plans after every conversation your people will lose faith in you and nothing will ever get done.

How do you keep focused when things around you get topsy turvy?

I Told the Radio What I Told the Papers: Cut the Burn Rate in Washington

I was recently on WSB radio, and I explained there the same thing I explained in my recent Atlanta Business Chronicle article.

We have to cut the rate of spending – the rate at which we’re burning money – in the government. 10 or 15% across the board – that’s every single department – is what’s going to be the beginning of necessary to start the process of recovery. And the road to recovery will be long, to take a line from someone else’s trite playbook.

The reason I’m bringing this up again is because I want to emphasize what the guys at WSB kept asking me about: the political aspect.

Party Politics is a Debt Party

Is it possible in a Washington as mired in party politics as ours currently is that we could get a sweeping cut in spending like I’m proposing without any exceptions?

Disappointingly, I think the answer is no. Things have become too politicized and though everyone there can say I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine, nobody can end his own itchy back. That is to say that even when our representatives are not scratching one another’s backs they still want to have their own causes funded – or not defunded as the case may be in my proposal.

But if we don’t start treating the government like a business and money like it’s real and debt like it matters and ultimately do what we do in turnaround – slash spending immediately without question, qualm or hesitation – we’ll be hesitating and backscratching all the way back to a recession.

Blind Man, Dark Room

I don’t want to overplay the recent AA+ downgrade and the impact that it could have – or more importantly the impact that the reasons it occurred is going to have – but at the very least it should serve as a wake-up call that we are not behaving effectively and our policy makers are not taking the appropriate steps.

Stop spending money, now, Washington.

I don’t want excuses, and I don’t want politics.

I don’t want to keep hearing things in the news like the trade deficit unexpectedly widened to 53.1 billion dollars. That just means that once again projections and statistics are off and we need a collectively more conservative approach (and I don’t mean conservative in a political sense – I mean it in a spending sense).

Cut 10-15% of all spending immediately. This is not political. This is personal – 315 million people personal. Let’s fix this before it gets worse.

How would you help cut spending and eliminate waste in government?

Avoid America’s Bankruptcy by Bringing a Turnaround Guy to Washington and Treating the Country Like a Business

This article was published in its original form in the Atlanta Business Chronicle here.

The United States is a capitalistic society, so I often wonder why the government isn’t run like a business. We had a surplus 12 years ago, but now our debt is astronomical: nearly 14 and a half trillion dollars. This isn’t a political issue. It’s a business one – or at least it should be.

When a business finds itself in this much debt relative to its capacity to repay, the bank, Board of Directors or shareholders say, “No more!” and send in a turnaround professional. We are the shareholders, and it’s time to send a turnaround guy to D.C.

When my clients have problems with cash flow they don’t print money. They raise money, close plants, layoff people or cut spending; they tighten their belts to survive.

Despite insurmountable debt, the U.S. government isn’t doing those things. Businesses with negative cash flow would have been bought, liquidated, merged or otherwise gone at this point, and I don’t want to see us become like Greece or Iceland in five years. Worse still, I don’t want to be a part of the United States of China, since in the business world a company with increasing debt is subject to acquisition or dissolution by a larger and wealthier business.

I always say that 100% of spreadsheets and projections don’t work because the assumptions are wrong, yet people rarely revisit and alter the assumptions regularly to produce more positive results. Even today, the Office of Management and Budget, which hasn’t made an accurate P&L projection in years, thinks that our revenue is going to increase by x if we do a, b and c. But x is an assumption that’s based on the unlikely actualization of a, b and c, possible only if we overcome party politics. And as the deficit skyrockets, the assumptions are increasingly wrong and the parties are increasingly polarized.

The only way we’re going to resolve our financial crisis is by treating the government like a business.

As we repeatedly hear, a balanced budget is the first step. The second step, however, is a repayment plan of our foreign debt. Next, raise taxes. No one likes tax increases – especially me – but it’s part of the solution.

The corporate amnesty program allowed businesses to return profits from foreign soil to the U.S. at lower tax rates, which created more jobs in America. This was a wonderful and creative idea, but it equates to peeing in an ocean: it doesn’t change the levels. While thousands of these ideas will amount to an aggregated long-tail effect, we need to begin with more drastic measures.

Turnaround 101 dictates that we start by slashing all spending by at least 15%. We must tell every division, department and agency that it needs to cut its cash needs – no exceptions. The pain will be shared across the whole country as it would be across an entire business. This kind of mandatory budget cut provides time to fine tune operational requirements based on the improved results.

Before you ask, this 15% cut would affect entitlements, social security, health care, the military, and education – everything.

It’s easy to buck and cry, What about the children? Shouldn’t they be exempt from budgetary cuts? What about the sick and the poor? What about defense?

Here’s what I ask every department at a business: “Do you want your company to survive until tomorrow or do you want to quibble about who’s more deserving of money that doesn’t exist? I don’t care how you do it. Just do it.”

Internal politics kill companies in the private sector because politics and business don’t mix. Similarly, politics has no place in America’s budgetary discussions, and our issues must be addressed by those who can truly set aside political or personal biases and run this country like a turnaround professional in the private sector.

As a turnaround guy, I act like an ER doctor; my first step is to stabilize the patient and prevent shock. As a country, we’re already in shock. Nobody wants to lose an arm or a leg, but if there’s only enough blood for the torso and the leg is gangrenous, you better believe I’ll lop it off to save the body. In five years, the prosthetic surgeon can make us pretty again. I’m in a unique business, but it’s the business of making sure we’re still alive in 2025 with or without a leg.

In addition to the 15% cut, we must freeze all raises and expansions. That means no more foreign aid increases (also subject to the 15% cut), and we put a reasonable mandatory repayment plan in place for foreign aid. We can’t continue to write off receivables and survive. It doesn’t work that way in business, and it can’t work that way in government.

This also means no cost of living increases for government employees, social security beneficiaries and pensioners. In addition, congressmen can enjoy normal health care services – not VIP lifetime benefits for two years of service.

Unfortunately, tenured positions can’t be affected, but we can stop giving tenure. All rules for entitlements (e.g. pensions) must be reviewed. The private sector has largely eliminated pensions because it can’t afford them, and government needs to do the same. In capitalism when you can’t afford something you stop doing it.

I don’t have every last answer for how to save the trillions we need, but by making – and enforcing – these tough moves we can save America from bankruptcy, collapse and ruin. We must empower people to save money, and punish them for spending it needlessly in order to get a line item the following year.

Legislators keep asking that we have faith. Our economic stability has been built on faith: full faith and credit in the U.S. We can’t retain faith after twelve years of increasing debt. We need to deal with hard facts and run America like a business. Business is not about faith. It’s about trusting what works, and what works in business is what I know. Treat America like a business, and we’ll all live to buy another day.

I’m the Turnaround Authority and my bags are packed. Washington D.C., please call!

Corporate Liquidations Suggest a Double-Dip Recession Might Still Hit

Every pundit and his brother has a prediction about whether or not we’re in for a double-dip recession.

If we’re to believe the government’s indicators and message, our economy is improving. But it’s not hard to manipulate statistics and present them in the best light. After all, part of a recovering economy is consumer confidence and a return to lending and spending.

Companies Keep Going Out of Business

However, based on GGG’s last three years’ client base the economy isn’t looking so up. That is, more of our clients than ever before required asset recovery, surrendered to bank demands, and have operating losses. Even those that turn around are taking longer than our standard experience.

Now, before you go questioning the quality of our turnaround abilities, it’s worth mentioning that for the majority of our history, workouts were 95% of our business model, with a fantastic 90% success rate based on our client’s – not our – goals.

In 2008 and 2009, however, various forms of asset recovery were 50% of our business. More companies out there are failing or have failed and that makes more business for which we just go in to clean up the mess and recover as much value as possible for whoever is getting paid out.

In my opinion, that just sucks. I love turnaround. I love creating value. I love saving jobs. Shooting the company and burying it -though we do that and do it well – are not the sign of a fun time or a healthy economy.

Will We Double-Dip the Chip?

At the end of 2010, we’re still seeing significant asset recovery situations – around 25%.

Sure, that’s better than the 50% of the two previous years, but it’s still high, and as far as I’m concerned, the number of failing businesses that are past the point of turnaround is a sign that we may not be able to avoid a double-dip recession.

Another indicator of this problem – and one with which I work intimately – is the number of companies failing because they can’t find refinancing after the FDIC takes over their failing bank.

The dip might not be deep or as jarring as the first, but history tells us that it will still postpone a decrease in unemployment and a return to a normalcy in lending.

What To Do

So my advice, both personally and corporately: stay liquid.

That’s how our successful clients stay successful and defy market trends at times like these.

Use that liquidity in an emergency, to wait for wonderful investment opportunities or to buy out competitors when they falter – you could get great deals at low multiples or for deeply discounted asset values.

Consider Fortune 100 companies. They’re keeping more cash on their balance sheets than ever before and buying businesses or repurchasing their own stock at traditionally lower prices.

Everyone else may be dipping but staying liquid could keep you floating.

Until next week, watch out for the alligators.*

*I’ll explain the alligators in an upcoming post so stay tuned . . .