turnaround consulting

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Corporate Liquidations Suggest a Double-Dip Recession Might Still Hit

Every pundit and his brother has a prediction about whether or not we’re in for a double-dip recession.

If we’re to believe the government’s indicators and message, our economy is improving. But it’s not hard to manipulate statistics and present them in the best light. After all, part of a recovering economy is consumer confidence and a return to lending and spending.

Companies Keep Going Out of Business

However, based on GGG’s last three years’ client base the economy isn’t looking so up. That is, more of our clients than ever before required asset recovery, surrendered to bank demands, and have operating losses. Even those that turn around are taking longer than our standard experience.

Now, before you go questioning the quality of our turnaround abilities, it’s worth mentioning that for the majority of our history, workouts were 95% of our business model, with a fantastic 90% success rate based on our client’s – not our – goals.

In 2008 and 2009, however, various forms of asset recovery were 50% of our business. More companies out there are failing or have failed and that makes more business for which we just go in to clean up the mess and recover as much value as possible for whoever is getting paid out.

In my opinion, that just sucks. I love turnaround. I love creating value. I love saving jobs. Shooting the company and burying it -though we do that and do it well – are not the sign of a fun time or a healthy economy.

Will We Double-Dip the Chip?

At the end of 2010, we’re still seeing significant asset recovery situations – around 25%.

Sure, that’s better than the 50% of the two previous years, but it’s still high, and as far as I’m concerned, the number of failing businesses that are past the point of turnaround is a sign that we may not be able to avoid a double-dip recession.

Another indicator of this problem – and one with which I work intimately – is the number of companies failing because they can’t find refinancing after the FDIC takes over their failing bank.

The dip might not be deep or as jarring as the first, but history tells us that it will still postpone a decrease in unemployment and a return to a normalcy in lending.

What To Do

So my advice, both personally and corporately: stay liquid.

That’s how our successful clients stay successful and defy market trends at times like these.

Use that liquidity in an emergency, to wait for wonderful investment opportunities or to buy out competitors when they falter – you could get great deals at low multiples or for deeply discounted asset values.

Consider Fortune 100 companies. They’re keeping more cash on their balance sheets than ever before and buying businesses or repurchasing their own stock at traditionally lower prices.

Everyone else may be dipping but staying liquid could keep you floating.

Until next week, watch out for the alligators.*

*I’ll explain the alligators in an upcoming post so stay tuned . . .

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I’m Lee N. Katz and It’s Nice to Meet You

Allow Me to Introduce Myself

My name is Lee N. Katz, and I’ve specialized in turning companies around for more than 25 years. In 1986, I joined Grisanti, Galef & Goldress (GGG), one of the oldest turnaround consulting firms in the United States. In 1997, I became the managing partner.

Throughout my career in crisis management, I’ve served as an interim executive officer and reorganization director for both large and small companies, public and private, with annual revenues from $5 million up to $3 billion. In addition to offering expert-witness testimony regarding business valuations, turnarounds, and plan feasibilities, and I’ve served on court-appointed federal and state receiverships.

I love using my skills to help owners, CEOs and boards of directors prevent crises from happening, but no one ever seems to know a crisis is happening before the roof gets blown off the barn. And that’s when I step in.

In the 70s I worked for First National Bank of Atlanta, eventually directing their asset-based lending in the Atlanta area. I’ve also spent quite a bit of time developing and managing commercial real estate for end users like Wal-Mart, John Wieland Homes, and other private investor groups.  I’ve renegotiated more than $1 billion in real estate leases and handled numerous environmental issues for real estate and corporate manufacturing clients. Sometimes I do this in cooperation with state and national Environmental Protection Agency authorities.

I often serve as a financial advisor to individuals and trusts.

Specialties

People often ask me what I specialize in, so I thought I’d toss the short list your way:

  • Financial Restructuring
  • Bankruptcy and Bankruptcy Restructuring
  • Real Estate Receiverships, both Federal and State
  • Operating Company Receiverships, both Federal and State
  • Restructuring Bank Debt with the FDIC and Successor Banks
  • Asset Liquidations
  • Alternative Restructures to Bankruptcy
  • FDIC Negotiations
  • Corporate Due Diligence
  • Bond Restructuring
  • Financial Advising to Bond Funds
  • Corporate Downsizing

Some Public Recognition

For those of you who are kind enough to be interested, my firm, GGG, has been recognized by the Turnaround Management Association’s (TMA) Atlanta Chapter:

• 2008 Small Company Turnaround of the Year Benton-Ga, Inc. Learn More
• 2004 Non-Profit Company Turnaround of the Year – Life University Inc. Learn More
• 2003 Large Company Turnaround of the Year – P.S. Energy Corp.
• 2002 Large Company Turnaround of the Year – Wyncom Inc. Learn More

So, that’s a bit about me.

Now you know who’s writing this blog. If you have any questions about these things or if there’s anything general that I can answer for you, please don’t hesitate to ask in the comments.