I’ve been writing a lot lately about Greece, which is representative of the larger problems Europe is having right now. My interest lies in the fact that an organization (in this case a country or group of countries) is spinning out of control in crisis and has little or no idea how to fix things. I think that they need a turnaround guy’s help, or at least his attitude.
I know that there are differences between companies and countries, namely, the number of factors involved. What do I mean by that?
At a company, you can quite often say, If I do x, y will occur. The reason is that there are a limited number of factors involved. I can look at the numbers on a Balance Sheet; I can comb over a P&L. I can say, if we stop spending in these places, the cash saved can pay for the following. With those payments made (generally debt and required expenses), the business can stay afloat, avoid further crisis, ultimately pay its debt down, and emerge to become profitable again. It’s not that easy and requires a lot of creativity and negotiation, but there’s rarely a case I can’t figure out.
Unlike in a country, in a private company you can sell off assets, which is a great way to generate cash you don’t have (in contrast, countries tend to just print money, which is creating an asset they don’t have and that devalues the other assets they do have). Greece, for instance, can’t sell off Thessaloniki. Well, maybe it could, but I don’t know that Romania would pay the asking price (Turkey might).
In addition, in a private company, you don’t have to worry (as much) about gauging people’s reactions. Of course you want buy-in and for the people to be on your side, but at the end of the day, whatever must be done to survive must be done. If it’s not, and the business collapses, the people are laid off and must go elsewhere. If the people in a country disagree with the decision makers, riots can ensue alongside, potentially, political mayhem and anarchy. After all, the people are assumed to comprise the country and therefore be responsible for the debt. If the government dissolves, the people are still there, the country is still there and the debt still, arguably, exists. In business, there’s bankruptcy. In governments, not so much.
As a turnaround professional, I look at all of these country-based crises, and I see the opportunity to turn them around. It would certainly be exceedingly complex and involve unpredictable elements at that level, the likes of which we don’t usually see in companies, but it’s the attitude that’s needed – an attitude that doesn’t seek to make more money out of no money, but one that embraces austerity and survival at all costs.
So without further ado, I’d like to show you a great animated video that does a delightful job summing up the European debt crisis and the proposed solutions. Watch it and tell me we don’t need a turnaround guy in there:
What did you think?